College Football Idiot Savant Week 12
Liveforthepage had a strong 2-1 run last week, with only the honor coders at BYU letting us down. We saw a Buckeye win with the successful Herbstreit pick of Purdue and the points, those are always hard needles to thread. There are a couple of marquee matchups in big boy college football this weekend so let’s let it ride for another week.
Prediction 1: #11 Oklahoma travels deep into their new conference territory to Tuscaloosa, where #4 Alabama (-6) looks to sure up its first berth in the new playoff format. Alabama have not yet made the playoff in the new expanded format, despite often being there when there were only four teams. I just wanted to point that out while it’s still true, however fleeting. In my mind Oklahoma isn’t going to delay the inevitable here, take Alabama to cover.
Prediction 2: The UCLA Bruins make their obligatory visit to Columbus for a shellacking per the Big Ten media agreement. This is the team that ended James Franklin, but Ohio State (-32.5) is not at risk here. That said, Ryan Day isn’t going to play to the spread number, just to dominate the game. For that reason, I again, regrettably revert to going with another Herbstreit pick. Take the Bruins and the points.
Prediction 3: When it comes to the blue bloods of college football over the last decade, Georgia is one, Texas wants to be one. #5 Georgia (-6) is only favored by a touchdown, to me that extra point gets you the cover here. Georgia has more NFL bodies and I don’t look at it with the glee that some do, but Arch Manning coming up small here is more of a probability than a possibility. Dawgs cover.
It was good to see the Rockets get a win over Miami in some mid week Maction, which ensures this alumni doesn’t lose any more money to their cause for the week. The Buckeye juggernaut clocks in for another snoozer, but there are some other intriguing matchups this weekend. #9 Notre Dame at #22 Pitt isn’t an impossible upset scenario and #21 Iowa at #17 USC should be a colorful display of new Big Ten football. Traffic in Grandview is a mess, but not on Buckeye game days. Head to Dewey’s Pizza on 5th at halftime for a great pie, Buck ID accepted.
Summary:
Alabama covers -6.
UCLA and the points +32.5
Georgia covers -6
Record: 25-13-2
College Football Idiot Savant Week 11
Win, loss and push was not what I was hoping for with last week’s picks, but that’s gambling. Credit to Vandy for keeping in close enough for the push against a traditional powerhouse, and props to the Buckeyes for leaving no doubt against Penn State. I saw there were rumblings about making certain prop bets illegal, which makes sense considering the rampant opportunities for abuse, so get your silly ones in while you can.
Prediction 1: The long distance dedication pick of the week comes from all the honor code followers at #7 Brigham Young University. They would like this one to go out to all their unloved girlfriends who, in their hearts, wish they were dating men from #8 Texas Tech (-10). The Cougars are getting ten points as a top ten team, and this could turn into a blowout, but I’m going Casey Kasem on this one: BYU and the points.
Prediction 2: I never expected Missouri to come up in the picks this frequently when we started the season, but I’ve got one reference left. #3 Texas A&M (-6.5) will visit #22 Missouri on Saturday and they will cover nonchalant style. The real best thing to ever come out of Missouri is the 2010 coming of age drama, Winter’s Bone featuring our introduction to Jennifer Lawrence. Aggies cover.
Prediction 3: As the radio advertising in Columbus reiterates this week, Drew Brees no longer plays for Purdue, so there isn’t much to worry about this week. However, #1 Ohio State (-29.5) with nearly a thirty point spread is a little rich for my blood. I think the Buckeyes will systematically dismantle Purdue, but in their interest of preserving bodies and sportsmanship, it may not get to thirty. That’s not to say you won’t see some showmanship and skill in big plays, everybody should eat on Saturday, but take Purdue and the points.
Shout out to the Toledo Rockets getting back on track with a 42-3 win over Northern Illinois in some Wednesday Maction. The Rockets may not win the conference this year, but they always make me proud. Well, except for the various point shaving scandals throughout the years, but I digress. Enjoy the matchups this weekend, don’t get baited into picking an Iowa upset in Autzen, it ain’t happenin’. Get yourself some Black Dog Pizzeria this weekend to change things up, fantastic specialty pizza.
Summary:
BYU and the points +10
Texas A&M to cover -6.5
Purdue and the points +29.5
Record: 23-12-2
College Football Idiot Savant Week 10
This week we’ve seen the last of Brian Kelly at LSU after a beatdown at home, as well as a 3-1 outcome on the picks. The Rockets didn’t survive their west coast trip, I can’t emphasize this enough, don’t bet on your alma mater unless it’s Ohio State. But that’s all water under the bridge, we’ve got the Buckeyes back in play and a couple of SEC contests to ponder upon.
Prediction 1: It’s a football Friday in Columbus again, the cold weather won’t prevent the tailgate. The matchup we had circled on our calendars before the season is now a twenty point spread with Penn State at #1 Ohio State (-20.5). I’m not making the same mistake I did with Wisconsin, I don’t like the number, but I’m not doing a ceremonial Kirk pick. Buckeyes cover at the shoe in football weather.
Prediction 2: Talk about a loaded noon window this week, if Penn State had handled their business would could have had a party this weekend. #9 Vanderbilt at #20 Texas (-3) represents the most intrigue for me this week, David and Goliath, Intellect vs Strength, chickens coming home to roost for SEC fans that underestimated the only academic institution in the conference. We may see the end of Texas’ playoff run and the emergence of another threat. Take Vandy and the points.
Prediction 3: It might be too early to call it a play-in game, but with #18 Oklahoma and #14 Tennessee (-3.5) both sitting at two losses it might be. That isn’t to say a three loss team won’t make it to the playoff this year, but it is to say it wont be either of these two. With those hopes nearly dashed last week by Ole Miss, Oklahoma will get the final nail in their playoff coffin this week in rocky top Tennessee! Volunteers to cover.
No matchup this week for the Rockets as they will enjoy a week and a half break until they take on Northern Illinois on a Wednesday. As we start to peer into the abyss that is the playoff bracket, teams will be eliminated this week. You can’t win the Masters on Thursday, but you can lose it. Conference championship matchups will also take shape over the next few weeks, so be sure to enjoy the action. I had some Tommy’s Pizza last weekend, and it didn’t disappoint. It remains the best bet for your tailgate this weekend.
Summary:
Ohio State to cover -20.5
Vanderbilt and the points +3
Tennessee to cover -3.5
Record: 22-11-1
College Football Idiot Savant Week 9
Well I guess I should know better than to make a bet against the scarlet and gray, but 3-1 on the picks was a nice recovery. It’s nice to see teams like Notre Dame and Georgia barely cover to know there is more parity in the sport with NIL, and Toledo cover comfortably in bounce back fashion. The Buckeyes are resting this week but we have a bevy of ranked matchups to mull over. Remember, if you must bet more, put it on the team playing Michigan and forget parlays.
Prediction 1: Circle the wagons Sooners, this is an SEC game you joined the conference for. #8 Ole Miss travels to Norman to take on #14 Oklahoma (-5.5) in the new SEC. While the Sooners will enjoy the home field advantage, I see these teams as more evenly matched, and I really want another Lane Kiffin sound bite to remember from the post game presser. Take Ole Miss and the points.
Prediction 2: I recently asked #15 Missouri to, “Show Me” something as their state nickname implies, and they failed. This week they visit #10 Vanderbilt (-2.5) and I don’t have any more confidence that something great is going to come out of Missouri. Vanderbilt is the far better storyline this year, and with this basically being a pick-em game, I’m going with the academic school that’s giving up points. Vandy to cover.
Prediction 3: In our deep fried, big bucket, double bypass game of the week, the Aggies of #3 Texas A&M (-2.5) head down to Baton Rouge to take on #20 LSU. The thing you have to ask yourself with this matchup is this: Do I take a better team on the road to knock Brian Kelly out of the rankings for the price of less than a field goal? The answer is yes, allow the viewing of Kelly’s anguish to make your Saturday night more enjoyable. Texas A&M to cover.
In all that SEC talk, I didn’t forget about those in midnight blue who hail from fair Toledo. They go across the country to face a Washington State (-1.5) team that isn’t ready for Tucker Gleason. He threw four touchdowns and no interceptions last week in a rout, and it would be foolish to think he can’t engineer another victory. Here in Columbus Tommy’s remains the tailgate option of choice, stay classy and get your mind right for next week.
Summary:
Ole Miss and the points +5.5
Vanderbilt to cover -2.5
Texas A&M to cover -2.5
Toledo and the points +1.5
Record: 19-10-1
College Football Idiot Savant Week 8
It’s betting weeks like the last one that make you appreciate being a Buckeye fan. It’s betting weeks like the last one that I see them rolling in cover fashion to the tune of Whitesnake’s, “Here I Go Again.” They certainly walk on the lonely street of dreams, and although I went 1-2-1 last week, my resolve is not broken. There is still nothing good to report out of Missouri with that push, and it looks like I need more Indiana material. Tip of the cap to Eddie George’s Falcons and Pudge, we will see you next year at The Glass Bowl.
Prediction 1: It’s not out of nostalgia for the College Gameday show that I say it’s fallen. It’s because for some reason Disney is paying Pat McAfee and Desmond Howard to be the most unwatchable couple of blowhards I’ve ever seen on a sports broadcast. That said, they will be in Athens for #5 Ole Miss at #9 Georgia (-7.5) where I just have to go with the blue blood program and the NFL bodies on the Bulldogs roster. Georgia covers, but I would be interested to see what Lane Kiffin says afterward if they were to pull this off.
Prediction 2: Before you say I’ve gone Herbstreit, I didn’t throw for five touchdowns and eleven interceptions in my career at Ohio State. #1 Ohio State (-25.5) takes on the Badgers of Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium and twenty five and a half points is simply too much. Wisconsin will jump around at the end of the third, the Buckeyes will jump around at the end, and you can jump around the corner to the bank with Wisconsin and the points.
Prediction 3: I have a cynical theory. As much as I think the playoff committee tries to put together a good bracket, history tells us that Notre Dame (-9.5) will be the first three loss team to make the playoff. There has not been a more consistently overrated and undeserving team in my lifetime than the golden domers. That said, USC doesn’t play any defense, and Notre Dame should cover this week in the Colosseum.
I didn’t forget about you Rockets (-26.5), I’m looking forward to a bounce back blowout against Kent State at The Glass Bowl. Tucker Gleason is still on the roster, he went to his engineering classes this week, and he wants to party behind engineering Saturday night. Also, in my tradition of rooting with my heart against my bets, let me just say Trojans, “Fight On!”
Summary:
Georgia covers -7.5
Wisconsin and the points +25.5
Notre Dame to cover -9.5
Toledo covers -26.5
Record: 16-9-1
College Football Idiot Savant Week 7
Last week saw the top ranked Buckeyes continue to The Cars’ hit, “Let the Good Times Roll” at home and Alabama survive to improbably cover against Vanderbilt. While it may not be a rivalry week for the big matchups this time, what can’t be understated is The Battle of I-75 taking place at high noon on Saturday. The Toledo Rockets (-10.5) make their way a few miles south to take on the Bowling Green Falcons led by their locker room cat Pudge. Honestly the cat is a nice gimmick, but Pudge isn’t even that cute, must be a Bowling Green graduate.
Prediction 1: #1 Ohio State (-15.5) travels to Champaign to take on #17 Illinois, who will take one last swing at legitimacy after giving up 63 points to Indiana. I don’t love this bet, it’s a lot of points to give up as an away side, but the Buckeyes are about to go into a three game stretch in the Big Ten that can’t be overlooked. Illinois, Wisconsin and Penn State would be a great run to go on for this team, and they have the competence to play it well, Buckeyes cover.
Prediction 2: I’m not going to celebrate going undefeated in the pics last week, because #8 Alabama’s (-3) cover was a gift. That said, #14 Missouri hosts them this week, and what’s the last great thing you heard about coming out of Missouri? Maybe it will be an upset from the Tigers, although I think it says a lot about Alabama’s decline that this is a three point line. Take the hungry home Missouri and the points, Alabama isn’t what it used to be.
Prediction 3: The recently ascendant #3 Oregon Ducks (-7.5) fly to Bloomington to face undefeated #7 Indiana in a new look Big Ten spectacle. I have expressed my distaste for the state of Indiana on several occasions, but since they deserve it, I’ll do it again. What could compel a person to grow up in Indiana and cause them to stay? The only acceptable answer should be a prison sentence, which is not entirely dissimilar from being on the outside in the state. Oregon rides the jet stream for a top ten cover.
Expect the Rockets to avenge last year’s home loss at The Glass Bowl with a cover. Tucker Gleason has got something up his sleeve tattoo for the Falcons this year and he can sling it. The University of Toledo has a rocket outside their stadium that is pointed to land at Bowling Green’s fifty yard line. In my 15 years as a Toledo alumni, I have never heard about the equivalent on their campus, some schools want it more.
Summary:
Ohio State covers -15.5
Missouri and the points +3
Oregon covers -7.5
Toledo covers -10.5
Record 15-7
College Football Idiot Savant Week 6
Well Husky Stadium was no match for the Buckeyes, and they should have played Bachman Turner Overdrive’s, “Takin’ Care of Business” on QFM afterward. Penn State still can’t win a big one, and I’m beginning to think the whiteout is just to pump up t-shirt sales. Let’s get ready for another exciting week, and make some Ben Franklins (Always remember to gamble responsibly).
Prediction 1: The deep fried, big bucket game of the week sees #16 Vanderbilt travel to Tuscaloosa to bring an offering of grits and brain cells to a city bereft of one of those things. #10 Alabama (-10.5) looks to avenge one of the worst defeats in their history from last season against the Commodores. Frankly if they can’t cover against Vanderbilt, you don’t need to bet on them the rest of the season. It took Michigan 7 years to schedule Appalachian State after that debacle, but then they beat them 52-14. Alabama covers, hopes Neil Young will remember.
Prediction 2: If you asked Buckeye fans what they wanted most at the beginning of the season, it probably would have been to beat Michigan. Close on the list however would have been a big night game at the shoe. Instead, #1 Ohio State (-23.5) gets Minnesota at the 7:30 PM time slot, with a spread that’s not attractive to me. However, Minnesota struggled with Rutgers last weekend, Ohio State has Jeremiah Smith, as well as a host of offensive players that can allow you to cover on a lit up national broadcast.
Prediction 3: There is only one title contender playing in the state of Florida this week, and that is #3 Miami (-4.5) who is traveling to #18 Florida State. This matchup always makes me remember an animated Lee Corso on College Gameday shouting, “Wide right!” Of course a reference to the three heartbreaking wide right misses of Florida State kickers against Miami. The best part about this game for Florida State fans will be the pregame traditions, Miami covers.
This week sees the Rockets resting after an impressive cover against Akron I should have pulled the trigger on. With next weekend being The Battle of I-75 in third world Wood County, they should be prepared for the task at hand. I don’t want to be overly sensational, but if Vanderbilt wins, expect a themed week for the picks next time. The college football playoff doesn’t need Alabama around anyhow.
Summary:
Alabama covers -10.5
Ohio State covers -23.5
Miami covers -4.5
Record: 12-7
College Football Idiot Savant Week 5
It’s only been four weeks of college football, but I feel like we have all had some great entertainment so far. Liveforthepage locked in a 3-1 week against the spread last weekend, special thanks to Oklahoma’s defense for that late safety. The Rockets had a let down they can learn from and despite only four weeks passing, Dabo has fallen for the third time. In traditional mythology, it’s usually not until ninth station that the third fall takes place, so it’s been a banner year already.
Prediction 1: They say, “don’t bury the lead” so this week I won’t. The #6 Oregon Ducks fly into Happy Valley this week to take on #3 Penn State (-3.5) in the new age Big Ten. I recently drove through Erie, Pennsylvania and I have to say that it’s a bit misleading. I know it’s not October yet, but the eerie part of Pennsylvania is the white out game in State College. That being said, three and a half points is a low number for a home team in this kind of environment. The Ducks score and soar over the Nittany Lions, take the points.
Prediction 2: The second big matchup of the week comes to us from the deep, deep fried south, as #17 Alabama visits #5 Georgia (-3). SEC country is going to be out in force for this one, probably with pre-game trash talk involving the opposing fans’ sisters. We do that in the north too, but in the opposite direction, we aren’t shit talking about how hot our sisters are. As for the clash on the field, look for a slim cover by Georgia and a good watch with a lot of NFL bodies on both sidelines.
Prediction 3: With the students having completed the bye week bar crawl last weekend, they are ready for a fresh Ohio State (-8.5) team to take on Washington out west. It has been bet down to eight and a half from a nearly two touchdown line when it came out, and I see value here. I like the Buckeyes to open the Big Ten schedule in convincing fashion, make yourself a delicious Washington apple and enjoy the cover.
There is a great slate of 3:30 games to check out as conference play begins in the Big Ten, but nothing else that I want to put a nickel on. #11 Indiana (-8.5) and Iowa get together to compare corn, and that should be closer than the spread. #4 LSU plays the road dog role against #13 Ole Miss (-1.5) in the, ‘hope for a meteor’ game of the week, seriously could Brian Kelly be more unlikable? No Rockets (-21) bet this week either as they pick up the pieces against Akron, and that’s too big of a line. Tommy’s Pizza remains Columbus’ best bet for game day grub, 161 opens at eleven, Lane Ave at noon.
Summary
Oregon and the points +3.5
Georgia covers -3
Ohio State covers -8.5
Record 10-6
College Football Idiot Savant Week 4
Leave it to those golden domers to make my week once again, and look at them still being ranked despite the lack of a win. Nothing changes. (The last time this feat was achieved was Michigan going 0-2 and being ranked in 1988) Liveforthepage went a lackluster 2-3 with the picks, but you can’t call it a losing week when Clemson and Notre Dame both fell for the second time.
Prediction 1: Having driven through the state of Indiana more times than I ever thought I would, I came to a justifiable conclusion. On one of those trips I told myself I would never bet on anything that would come out of the state, but I digress. #19 Indiana (-4.5) hosts #9 Illinois in Bloomington, and although I haven’t confirmed if it will be a whiteout for the late kickoff, it will be. There should be more pairs of New Balance shoes to see Indiana cover than your local Foot Locker distribution center.
Prediction 2: It was suggested online this week and referenced in my golf group that there is an opportunity for a new trophy in the Big Ten. The Trojan Horse Trophy needs to be immediately implemented for the matchup between #25 USC (-18.5) and Michigan State. In Greek mythological fashion, I see the Spartans taking this one with the points. USC’s traditional lack of a defense should allow a rolling MSU to stay within the spread by garbage time even if the result has been decided.
Prediction 3: I played a lot of the old PC game, The Oregon Trail as a kid, maybe that explains my leaning towards the wagon train in #11 Oklahoma (-6.5) this week. Maybe it’s because I can’t remember #22 Auburn doing anything since Cam Newton played quarterback for them. Maybe it’s because OU are competitive in a real conference now, but I’m in for a cover. Oh now I remember, “Surrey With the Fringe on Top” was one of our high school choir songs. Honey here’s the way I it’s going to be: Oklahoma by at least 7.
The Buckeyes will enjoy their rest, but that doesn’t mean you can’t root against that state up north this week. The Toledo Rockets (-14) will travel to take on Western Michigan in their march toward the October 11th matchup at the Wood County Wastewater Facility. The Rockets should cover without too much hassle, thanks to gunslinger Tucker Gleason. The senior computer science and engineering major has one sleeve for ink, one sleeve for throwing touchdown passes. If anyone in Columbus decries the colors, it’s midnight blue and gold, none of that maze shit. Tommy’s Pizza remains the best bet for Saturday provisions, the Dublin location opens at 11.
Summary:
Indiana covers -4.5
Michigan State and the points +18.5
Oklahoma covers -6.5
Toledo covers -14
Record: 7-5
College Football Idiot Savant Week 3
With week two in the books we saw blowout victories for the Buckeyes and Rockets, in addition to Oklahoma taking care of business against Michigan. I hope that you got to enjoy some Tommy’s pizza for that non-starter in Columbus, it was the best Saturday Costco experience I’ve had in a while. There’s no time to celebrate a three for three prediction week because there are a slew of new matchups to ponder.
Prediction 1: The Bulldogs from #6 Georgia(-3.5) go into Knoxville for an SEC battle that’s sure to get a lot of eyeballs. #15 Tennessee comes to the table as an underdog at home, which reminds me of that terrible pickup line, “Are you from Tennessee? ‘Cause you’re the only ten I see.” The only ten I see is the point differential at the end of this game, Georgia should cover like the juggernaut they are.
Prediction 2: Some may call this a troll pick, but let’s be honest, coach Freeman is gonna have the domers ready to bounce back. I did a decade of the rosary this week in penance for the decades of ill will I have wished upon the Irish. Although they couldn’t overcome a better team last week with Miami, everything is bigger when it involves Texas, even A&M. Look for an overcompensation level cover this week in South Bend.
Prediction 3: While #18 South Florida enjoys a ranking thanks to upsetting Florida last week, I maintain that the swamp isn’t what it used to be. #5 Miami looks to be a contender in the playoff hunt early in the season and that will continue here. It’s a high number to cover at -17.5, but that’s exactly what the U should do here, preferably in orange.
For your fair and balanced homer pick of the week, I will stay in Columbus. The Buckeyes, energized by our own Zach in the shoe, will easily cover against Ohio (-31.5). Bonus bet of the week is the Toledo Rockets (-8) to cover against Morgan State, driving them one week closer to the Pemberville exit game in October. This week we’re covered in picks like Oasis fans with floor tickets were covered in beer last weekend at the Rose Bowl. While you won’t have that much fun, enjoy the tailgate this weekend wherever you are.
Summary:
Georgia covers -3.5
Notre Dame covers -6.5
Miami covers -17.5
Ohio State covers -31.5
Toledo covers -8
Record: 5-2
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