College Football Idiot Savant Week 14
I’m happy to report that liveforthepage rolls into rivalry week after a 3-0 run in our last effort. What a week to come into with momentum, as it’s the week of, “The Game.” Say what you will about the last four years, this is a classic iteration of the rivalry between Ohio State and Michigan. There’s all to play for on both sides, as a loss for Michigan puts them out of the playoff hunt, and a loss for Ohio State could prevent them from seeing the Big Ten Championship game. I called on a pair of our all star contributors to assist with this week’s prognostication, as this one is the biggest so far.
Emily’s Prediction: I was born and raised in Ohio, but I am still a recent transplant to Columbus. I have always known that Buckeye football was beloved, but to witness the passion and fandom firsthand has been a learning experience. Coming from a university that played D3 sports and didn’t have a football team, my college football knowledge is limited. But as a Bears fan, I know my way around a classic football rivalry. Even if the all time record goes to the Packers, the Bears will always be the better team. I think that’s certainly true with the Buckeyes and the team up north. The Maze and Blue will play their hardest against the Scarlet and Gray, but the only way the Buckeyes lose is by defeating themselves in this match up. Go Bears! Go Bucks! Bet on a cover!
Zach’s Prediction: Let’s just say that the overwhelming feeling of Zach’s prediction was one of Ohio State domination, a cover for certain, but let him tell you in his own words here:https://liveforthepage.com/2025/11/27/the-last-week-in-november/. OSU Covers.
Justin’s Prediction: As I sat in Toronto’s Roger’s Stadium with the love of my life waiting to see Oasis play, Neil Young’s, “Rockin’ in the Free World” came on just before they took stage. I have never felt so jacked up in my life. That was in August, and I feel like Zach will have that same feeling at about 11:56 am on Saturday. I hope the flurries start dropping right about that time so that the knuckle draggers up north get a fleeting bit of hope before Ohio State (-12.5) sweeps the floor on the regular season with a double cover. Zach has way worse taste in music than I do though, so maybe in his head, you’ve got Limp Bizkit’s, “Rollin’” playing at ear-bleed volume. There is no one I know who is more committed to the bit with, “The Game” and I’m all in too, a win by 25 or more is in the cards. I look forward to celebrating with the biggest Buckeye fan I know, four years has been too long. Ohio State covers Michigan out of the playoff.
I want to thank my two best friends for helping me out this week with the predictions, there’s only one game that matters this week. I’ll get back to picking other games, but I felt like this one was more important. If the Bucks lose and I take three Ls, so be it, better than winning a title by cheating. Scarlet and gray tell me what ya gonna do now? “Keep rollin’ rollin’ rollin’ rollin’.”
Summary:
Emily: Ohio State covers -12.5
Zach: Ohio State covers -12.5
Justin: Ohio State covers -12.5
Record: 29-15-2
The Last Week In November
This week liveforthepage features a guest segment from contributor and resident Buckeye expert Zach. There is no more reliable source for Buckeye knowledge that isn’t behind a paywall, or FERPA regulations. Without further adieu, enjoy.
You can ask those few who know me, or the even fewer who love me, and they’ll tell you, Zach Crist is an impatient fellow. There are very few things in life that I willingly wait for. At the very top of that list is the last weekend of November, every single year. When the cool fall air rolls in, when auburn, burnt yellow, orange and brown settle into the trees, and when that beauty meets the eternal clash of scarlet and grey vs. piss, I mean, “maize” and blue, everything inside me lights up.
This year is no exception. In fact, the stakes feel higher.
But it’s been 362 days since Ohio State put on one of the worst on-field performances I’ve seen since Maroon 5 played the Super Bowl halftime show in 2019.
The Loss That Broke Something, and Built Something Else
People wanted Ryan Day gone after that loss. Not me, of course, I’m very reasonable. (Just don’t check my Facebook posts from last year.) But that loss did something to him. It changed him. It created a monster. His wife even said, “He became maniacle. It was every second of every day. Even in the middle of the night he was typing notes.”
And I imagine those notes looked like Bart Simpson’s chalkboard:
I will not lose to those clowns to the North ever again.
I will not lose to those clowns to the North ever again.
I will not lose to those clowns to the North ever again.
Numbers Matter, In The Game and in Christmas Songs. What do The 12 Days of Christmas and The Game have in common?
Numbers.
So here are mine: Offensive Stats
- 111th in total plays (695)
- 19th in first downs
- 12th in yards per play (6.97)
- 37% of plays result in a first down
326 plays have resulted in a first down or a score. That means 47% of all plays result in either points or a chain-mover. Nearly one out of every two plays, you can confidently say, “First down” or, “Yep I saw that coming.” Especially when Sayin lets it fly to Smith or Tate for six. This doesn’t even include Sayin’s absurd efficiency numbers as he trends toward the most accurate quarterback season of all time. I mean, he couldn’t be more accurate if he called a timeout and personally walked the damn ball over to the receiver. Not to mention:
- Dead last in punts, only 20 in 11 games
- 124th in 4th down attempts, but 15th in conversion %
- Dead last in 3rd down attempts, yet 2nd in 3rd down conversions
Not flashy.
Not wild.
Just brutally efficient.
Ohio State Defense:
- 1st in scoring defense
- 5th in rushing defense
- 2nd in passing defense
Which makes us 1st in total defense, giving up under 8 points per game. But How Does TTUN Stand a Chance? Bryce Underwood, with only 4 more TDs than INTs, has to lead an offense to score more than 8 points, which they’ve rarely done. Against even mediocre competition, they average under 30 PPG
(54th nationally). They have to either be uncharacteristically good on Saturday, or we have to be uncharacteristically bad in my opinion for this to be close.
The Caveat: Since 2000, the team that rushed for more yards in The Game is 22‑1. But we don’t have to impose our will on the ground first. Start with the pass, draw the linebackers into the secondary, and then let Bo Jackson break free.
Justin Asked for One Paragraph, He Was Never Going to Get Just One. Not this week. Not for this game. I can’t just hand over a score prediction like it’s nothing, because this isn’t nothing. This is The Game.
The Two Paths:
Scenario 1
Ohio State jumps ahead early, offense too hot to handle, defense suffocates TTUN. Ohio State might win this one by 30, so give me the good guys to cover.
Scenario 2
Day wants to prove toughness again, we play their style, it stays tight into the 4th.
And if you let a loser hang around too long, he starts believing he has a chance, which is the last thing you want with the Mr. Brightside choir in Ann Arbor. If this happens, OSU either wins but doesn’t cover or loses and someone will need to bring me enough alcohol to drown in cuz I can’t do 5 in a row.
A Final Plea to Coach Day
Ryan, since I know you read this every week: If we go up 14, start going for 2 every single time. This isn’t about sportsmanship. This isn’t about class.
WE HATE THESE PEOPLE.
Micheal Jordan once said “Let’s see if all that trash-talking starts when it’s 0-0 instead of a 5-6-point lead. That’s where it starts. That’s the sign of a good man, if he can talk shit when it’s an even score or talk shit when you’re behind. When you’re ahead, it’s easy to talk.” So start talking now Ryan. Put your boot on their throat and give them the Grambling State treatment. No mercy, Less remorse.
In 2020 you swore you’d hang 100 on them, you haven’t scored 100 on them combined in the last four years.
End Sherrone Moore’s career.
Show them who was really born on third.
Record their tears with the same camcorders they used to steal signs.
(Thank you Zach, never change.)
College Football Idiot Savant Week 13
It serves me right for betting against Ohio State and for Alabama in the same week, that’s a karmic disaster. I repent, I repent, I will blaspheme no more this season. The Buckeyes ability to dominate the lesser teams on their schedule this year hasn’t gone unnoticed. Last year I was at a wedding where the uncertainty of the Nebraska game delayed the start of ceremonies. It’s that kind of fandom that should be remembered when people bemoan Buckeye fans, as if to say, “What good is forever love if we lose to the Cornhuskers for Christ’s sake?” Barring injury, there simply is no more picking against them this year.
Prediction 1: From the ashes of the PAC 12 comes the classic west coast matchup of arguably the Big Ten’s best dressed. #15 USC descends upon Autzen Stadium to take on #7 Oregon (-9.5), it’s too bad this isn’t a night game to showcase whatever strip Oregon goes with. Playoff hopes are on the line for both teams here but I don’t believe in USC’s defense as much as I do believe in Oregon’s home field advantage. Take Oregon to cover, but I think it might be a nail biting win by 10.
Prediction 2: As Rutgers visits Columbus this weekend to take on #1 Ohio State (-31.5), I hope the get their sightseeing in. I hope they check out Easton, North Market or Bridge Park, really anything to make the most of their trip over here. That is to say there will be little evidence that they played a football game, other than their own bruises. It’s a leave no doubt week, a telegraph score that once it’s over the wire, the real season begins. Buckeyes cover.
Prediction 3: If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that I would be making this many Missouri football predictions, I may have reconsidered the series. #22 Missouri heads to Norman where #8 Oklahoma (-7.5) looks to solidify its playoff position and I’m afraid they may not need to circle the wagons to win this one. The cover on the other hand will be trickier, but doable, I see this as a ten point game between disparate programs as Oklahoma rolls to a cover.
Expect my Toledo Rockets to take care of business against Ball State, but I’m not touching a 27.5 point spread with the midnight blue and gold anymore this season. One can start to feel the foreshadowing of next week on campus already, and it doesn’t feel heavy to me. I’m not about to start making bold statements or exaggerated claims, just the quiet confidence of knowing what this Buckeye team is capable of. Think twice about your order of Detroit style pizza over the next 8 days, you don’t need it that bad.
Summary:
Oregon to cover -9.5
Ohio State to cover -31.5
Oklahoma to cover -7.5
Record: 26-15-2
College Football Idiot Savant Week 12
Liveforthepage had a strong 2-1 run last week, with only the honor coders at BYU letting us down. We saw a Buckeye win with the successful Herbstreit pick of Purdue and the points, those are always hard needles to thread. There are a couple of marquee matchups in big boy college football this weekend so let’s let it ride for another week.
Prediction 1: #11 Oklahoma travels deep into their new conference territory to Tuscaloosa, where #4 Alabama (-6) looks to sure up its first berth in the new playoff format. Alabama have not yet made the playoff in the new expanded format, despite often being there when there were only four teams. I just wanted to point that out while it’s still true, however fleeting. In my mind Oklahoma isn’t going to delay the inevitable here, take Alabama to cover.
Prediction 2: The UCLA Bruins make their obligatory visit to Columbus for a shellacking per the Big Ten media agreement. This is the team that ended James Franklin, but Ohio State (-32.5) is not at risk here. That said, Ryan Day isn’t going to play to the spread number, just to dominate the game. For that reason, I again, regrettably revert to going with another Herbstreit pick. Take the Bruins and the points.
Prediction 3: When it comes to the blue bloods of college football over the last decade, Georgia is one, Texas wants to be one. #5 Georgia (-6) is only favored by a touchdown, to me that extra point gets you the cover here. Georgia has more NFL bodies and I don’t look at it with the glee that some do, but Arch Manning coming up small here is more of a probability than a possibility. Dawgs cover.
It was good to see the Rockets get a win over Miami in some mid week Maction, which ensures this alumni doesn’t lose any more money to their cause for the week. The Buckeye juggernaut clocks in for another snoozer, but there are some other intriguing matchups this weekend. #9 Notre Dame at #22 Pitt isn’t an impossible upset scenario and #21 Iowa at #17 USC should be a colorful display of new Big Ten football. Traffic in Grandview is a mess, but not on Buckeye game days. Head to Dewey’s Pizza on 5th at halftime for a great pie, Buck ID accepted.
Summary:
Alabama covers -6.
UCLA and the points +32.5
Georgia covers -6
Record: 25-13-2
College Football Idiot Savant Week 11
Win, loss and push was not what I was hoping for with last week’s picks, but that’s gambling. Credit to Vandy for keeping in close enough for the push against a traditional powerhouse, and props to the Buckeyes for leaving no doubt against Penn State. I saw there were rumblings about making certain prop bets illegal, which makes sense considering the rampant opportunities for abuse, so get your silly ones in while you can.
Prediction 1: The long distance dedication pick of the week comes from all the honor code followers at #7 Brigham Young University. They would like this one to go out to all their unloved girlfriends who, in their hearts, wish they were dating men from #8 Texas Tech (-10). The Cougars are getting ten points as a top ten team, and this could turn into a blowout, but I’m going Casey Kasem on this one: BYU and the points.
Prediction 2: I never expected Missouri to come up in the picks this frequently when we started the season, but I’ve got one reference left. #3 Texas A&M (-6.5) will visit #22 Missouri on Saturday and they will cover nonchalant style. The real best thing to ever come out of Missouri is the 2010 coming of age drama, Winter’s Bone featuring our introduction to Jennifer Lawrence. Aggies cover.
Prediction 3: As the radio advertising in Columbus reiterates this week, Drew Brees no longer plays for Purdue, so there isn’t much to worry about this week. However, #1 Ohio State (-29.5) with nearly a thirty point spread is a little rich for my blood. I think the Buckeyes will systematically dismantle Purdue, but in their interest of preserving bodies and sportsmanship, it may not get to thirty. That’s not to say you won’t see some showmanship and skill in big plays, everybody should eat on Saturday, but take Purdue and the points.
Shout out to the Toledo Rockets getting back on track with a 42-3 win over Northern Illinois in some Wednesday Maction. The Rockets may not win the conference this year, but they always make me proud. Well, except for the various point shaving scandals throughout the years, but I digress. Enjoy the matchups this weekend, don’t get baited into picking an Iowa upset in Autzen, it ain’t happenin’. Get yourself some Black Dog Pizzeria this weekend to change things up, fantastic specialty pizza.
Summary:
BYU and the points +10
Texas A&M to cover -6.5
Purdue and the points +29.5
Record: 23-12-2
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